Tong Shilu, Hu Wenbiao, McMichael A J
School of Public Health, Queensland University of Technology, Kelvin Grove, Australia.
Trop Med Int Health. 2004 Feb;9(2):298-304. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-3156.2003.01175.x.
How climate variability affects the transmission of infectious diseases at a regional level remains unclear. We assess the impact of climate variation on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission in the Townsville region, Queensland, north-east Australia.
We obtained population-based information on monthly variations in RRv cases, climatic factors, sea level, and population growth between 1985 and 1996. Cross-correlations were computed for a series of associations between climate variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity and high tide) and the monthly incidence of RRv disease over a range of time lags. We assessed the impact of climate variability on RRv transmission using the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model.
There were significant correlations of the monthly incidence of RRv to rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and relative humidity, all at a lag of 2 months, and high tide in the current month. The results of SARIMA models show that monthly average rainfall (beta = 0.0007, P = 0.01) and high tide (beta = 0.0089, P = 0.04) were significantly associated with RRv transmission and maximum temperature was also marginally significantly associated with monthly incidence of RRv (beta = 0.0412, P = 0.07), although relative humidity did not seem to have played an important role in the Townsville region.
Rainfall, high tide and maximum temperature were likely to be key determinants of RRv transmission in the Townsville region.
气候变异性如何在区域层面影响传染病传播仍不清楚。我们评估了气候变化对澳大利亚东北部昆士兰州汤斯维尔地区罗斯河病毒（RRv）传播的影响。
我们获取了1985年至1996年间基于人群的RRv病例月度变化、气候因素、海平面和人口增长信息。计算了一系列气候变量（降雨量、最高温度、最低温度、相对湿度和高潮位）与RRv疾病月度发病率在一系列时间滞后情况下的交叉相关性。我们使用季节性自回归积分滑动平均（SARIMA）模型评估了气候变异性对RRv传播的影响。
RRv月度发病率与降雨量、最高温度、最低温度和相对湿度均在滞后2个月时有显著相关性，且与当月高潮位有显著相关性。SARIMA模型结果显示，月平均降雨量（β = 0.0007，P = 0.01）和高潮位（β = 0.0089，P = 0.04）与RRv传播显著相关，最高温度与RRv月度发病率也有边缘显著相关性（β = 0.0412，P = 0.07），尽管相对湿度在汤斯维尔地区似乎未发挥重要作用。
降雨量、高潮位和最高温度可能是汤斯维尔地区RRv传播的关键决定因素。
