Smith Derek J, Lapedes Alan S, de Jong Jan C, Bestebroer Theo M, Rimmelzwaan Guus F, Osterhaus Albert D M E, Fouchier Ron A M
Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
Science. 2004 Jul 16;305(5682):371-6. doi: 10.1126/science.1097211. Epub 2004 Jun 24.
The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.
对1968年至2003年甲型流感（H3N2）病毒传入人类后的抗原进化进行了量化和可视化分析。尽管抗原进化与基因进化之间存在显著对应关系，但也观察到了显著差异：抗原进化比基因进化更具间断性，而且基因变化有时会产生不成比例的大抗原效应。该方法能够轻松监测疫苗株与流行株之间的抗原差异，从而评估疫苗接种效果。此外，这种方法为预测新出现毒株的相对成功提供了一条途径，这可以通过量化群体水平免疫逃逸和病毒适应性对毒株进化的综合影响来实现。
