青少年吸烟意愿作为吸烟行为的预测指标
Adolescents' intentions to smoke as a predictor of smoking.
作者信息
Stanton Warren R, Barnett Adrian G, Silva Phil A
机构信息
Cancer Prevention Research Centre, School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
出版信息
Prev Med. 2005 Feb;40(2):221-6. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2004.05.026.
BACKGROUND
Adolescents' intentions to smoke are generally regarded as a valid and reliable predictor of subsequent smoking. This association is largely based on research with adults and needs a more detailed analysis for adolescents.
METHODS
Data on intentions and smoking status were collected as part of a longitudinal, birth-cohort study when the study members were 9, 11, 13, 15, 18, and 21 years of age.
RESULTS
The results showed that intention to smoke only had an important predictive power in the subgroup of previous nonsmokers. Among those already smoking (on a monthly basis or greater), previous level of smoking was a more important predictor of future behavior than intention to smoke. In addition, the effect of positive intention to smoke was nonlinear over age and had the greatest effect at age 15.
CONCLUSION
The results indicated that in adolescence, measurement of intentions to smoke or not smoke cannot be assumed to be a general predictor of behavior at a later age for all groups of adolescents.
背景
青少年吸烟意图通常被视为后续吸烟行为的有效且可靠的预测指标。这种关联很大程度上基于对成年人的研究，对于青少年则需要更详细的分析。
方法
作为一项纵向出生队列研究的一部分，在研究对象9岁、11岁、13岁、15岁、18岁和21岁时收集了关于吸烟意图和吸烟状况的数据。
结果
结果显示，吸烟意图仅在既往不吸烟者亚组中具有重要的预测力。在已经吸烟（每月或更频繁）的人群中，既往吸烟水平比吸烟意图更能预测未来行为。此外，吸烟积极意图的影响在年龄上呈非线性，在15岁时影响最大。
结论
结果表明，在青少年时期，不能假定测量吸烟或不吸烟意图对所有青少年群体来说都是后期行为的普遍预测指标。
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