Talbäck Mats, Rosén Måns, Stenbeck Magnus, Dickman Paul W
Centre for Epidemiology, The National Board of Health and Welfare, Stockholm, Sweden.
Cancer Causes Control. 2004 Nov;15(9):967-76. doi: 10.1007/s10522-004-2475-1.
Estimates of cancer patient survival made using traditional, cohort-based, methods can be heavily influenced by the survival experience of patients diagnosed many years in the past and may not be particularly relevant to recently diagnosed patients. Period-based survival analysis has been shown to provide better predictions of survival for recently diagnosed patients and earlier detection of temporal trends in patient survival than cohort analysis. We aim to provide predictions of the long-term survival of recently diagnosed cancer patients using period analysis. The period estimates are compared with the latest available cohort-based estimates. Our results, based on period analysis for the years 2000-2002, suggest an improvement in survival for many forms of cancer during recent years. For all sites combined the 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year relative survival ratios were 62%, 53%, 48%, and 47% for males and 67%, 62%, 60%, and 59%, for females. These estimates were 3-14% units higher than those obtained using the latest available cohorts with the respective lengths of follow-up. The interval-specific relative survival stabilised for males at 97% after 8 years of follow-up and for females at 98% after 7 years for both period and cohort analyses.
使用传统的基于队列的方法对癌症患者生存率进行的估计，可能会受到多年前确诊患者生存经验的严重影响，而且可能与近期确诊的患者并无特别关联。与队列分析相比，基于时期的生存分析已被证明能为近期确诊的患者提供更好的生存预测，并能更早地发现患者生存的时间趋势。我们旨在通过时期分析对近期确诊的癌症患者的长期生存情况进行预测。将时期估计值与最新可得的基于队列的估计值进行比较。我们基于2000 - 2002年的时期分析得出的结果表明，近年来多种癌症的生存率有所提高。所有部位综合起来，男性的5年、10年、15年和20年相对生存率分别为62%、53%、48%和47%，女性分别为67%、62%、60%和59%。这些估计值比使用最新可得队列且具有相应随访时长所获得的估计值高3 - 14个百分点。对于时期分析和队列分析，男性在随访8年后特定区间相对生存率稳定在97%，女性在随访7年后稳定在98%。
