烟草税收和定价对非洲吸烟流行率的影响。
The effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on the prevalence of smoking in Africa.
机构信息
Institute of Health Research, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana.
Department of Health Policy Planning and Management, School of Public Health, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana.
出版信息
Glob Health Res Policy. 2021 Apr 29;6(1):14. doi: 10.1186/s41256-021-00197-0.
BACKGROUND
Tobacco use continues to kill millions of people globally, making it one of the major causes of preventable deaths. Notwithstanding, there has been a very marginal fall in the prevalence of tobacco smoking in Africa. Since taxes (hence prices) are part of the main measures suggested to decrease the demand for tobacco products, this study investigates how tobacco taxation and pricing influence the prevalence of smoking in 24 African countries.
METHODS
Using panel data on 24 African countries sourced from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank databases for the period 2010 to 2016, this study employs the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to investigate the effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on the prevalence of smoking. The system GMM estimator is used due its ability to deal with potential endogeneity of tobacco taxation and pricing: the likelihood that the prevalence of smoking can influence tobacco taxation and pricing which may lead to biased estimates.
RESULTS
Tobacco taxation and pricing have negative significant effects on the prevalence of smoking among the selected countries after controlling for growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, urbanization, death rate and net inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Specifically, a percentage increase in tobacco price is found to decrease the prevalence of smoking by between 0.11 to 0.14%, while a percentage increase in tobacco tax decreases the prevalence of smoking by between 0.25 to 0.36%, all at 1% level of significance.
CONCLUSION
Since tobacco taxation and pricing are found to have negative significant effects on the prevalence of smoking, the implication is that, their use can be intensified by African policy makers towards achieving the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) recommended targets and hence decrease the prevalence of tobacco smoking in Africa. Doing so may therefore help in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.5 (prevention and treatment of substance abuse), thereby reducing the colossal number of smoking attributable deaths.
背景
烟草使用在全球范围内继续导致数百万人死亡，成为可预防死亡的主要原因之一。尽管如此，非洲的烟草吸烟率仍略有下降。由于税收（因此价格）是减少烟草产品需求的主要措施之一，因此本研究调查了烟草税收和定价如何影响 24 个非洲国家的吸烟流行率。
方法
本研究使用世界卫生组织（WHO）和世界银行数据库中 24 个非洲国家的面板数据，这些数据来源于 2010 年至 2016 年期间，采用系统广义矩估计量（GMM）来研究烟草税收和定价对吸烟流行率的影响。系统 GMM 估计量是由于其能够处理烟草税收和定价的潜在内生性：吸烟流行率可能影响烟草税收和定价，从而导致有偏估计的可能性。
结果
在控制人均国内生产总值（GDP）增长率、城市化率、死亡率和外国直接投资（FDI）净流入率后，烟草税收和定价对所选国家的吸烟流行率具有负向显著影响。具体而言，烟草价格每增加 1%，吸烟流行率预计会降低 0.11%至 0.14%，而烟草税每增加 1%，吸烟流行率预计会降低 0.25%至 0.36%，均在 1%的水平上显著。
结论
由于烟草税收和定价对吸烟流行率具有负向显著影响，这意味着非洲政策制定者可以加强其使用，以实现世界卫生组织烟草控制框架公约（FCTC）建议的目标，从而降低非洲的烟草吸烟率。这样做可能有助于实现可持续发展目标 3.5（预防和治疗药物滥用），从而减少大量与吸烟相关的死亡人数。
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