Olson Donald R, Simonsen Lone, Edelson Paul J, Morse Stephen S
Department of Epidemiology and Center for Public Health Preparedness, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Aug 2;102(31):11059-63. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0408290102. Epub 2005 Jul 26.
The 1918 "Spanish flu" was the fastest spreading and most deadly influenza pandemic in recorded history. Hypotheses of its origin have been based on a limited collection of case and outbreak reports from before its recognized European emergence in the summer of 1918. These anecdotal accounts, however, remain insufficient for determining the early diffusion and impact of the pandemic virus. Using routinely collected monthly age-stratified mortality data, we show that an unmistakable shift in the age distribution of epidemic deaths occurred during the 1917/1918 influenza season in New York City. The timing, magnitude, and age distribution of this mortality shift provide strong evidence that an early wave of the pandemic virus was present in New York City during February-April 1918.
1918年的“西班牙流感”是有记录以来传播速度最快、致死率最高的流感大流行。关于其起源的假说一直基于1918年夏季在欧洲被确认出现之前收集到的有限病例和疫情报告。然而，这些轶事性描述仍不足以确定大流行病毒的早期传播和影响。利用常规收集的按月划分年龄的死亡率数据，我们发现，1917/1918年流感季节期间，纽约市疫情死亡的年龄分布出现了明显变化。这种死亡率变化的时间、幅度和年龄分布提供了有力证据，表明1918年2月至4月期间纽约市出现了大流行病毒的早期浪潮。
