West J Jason, Fiore Arlene M
American Association for the Advancement of Science Environmental Fellow, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air & Radiation, NW, Washington, DC 20460, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2005 Jul 1;39(13):4685-91. doi: 10.1021/es048629f.
Background concentrations of tropospheric ozone are increasing and are sensitive to methane emissions, yet methane mitigation is currently considered only for climate change. Methane control is shown here to be viable for ozone management. Identified global abatement measures can reduce approximately 10% of anthropogenic methane emissions at a cost-savings, decreasing surface ozone by 0.4-0.7 ppb. Methane controls produce ozone reductions that are widespread globally and are realized gradually (approximately 12 yr). In contrast, controls on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) target high-ozone episodes in polluted regions and affect ozone rapidly but have a smaller climate benefit. A coarse estimate of the monetized global benefits of ozone reductions for agriculture, forestry, and human health (neglecting ozone mortality) justifies reducing approximately 17% of global anthropogenic methane emissions. If implemented, these controls would decrease ozone by -1 ppb and radiative forcing by approximately 0.12 W m(-2). We also find that climate-motivated methane reductions have air quality-related ancillary benefits comparable to those for CO2. Air quality planning should consider reducing methane emissions alongside NOx and NMVOCs, and because the benefits of methane controls are shared internationally, industrialized nations should consider emphasizing methane in the further development of climate change or ozone policies.
对流层臭氧的背景浓度正在上升,且对甲烷排放敏感,但目前甲烷减排仅在应对气候变化时被考虑。本文表明甲烷控制对于臭氧管理是可行的。已确定的全球减排措施能够以节省成本的方式减少约10%的人为甲烷排放,使地表臭氧浓度降低0.4 - 0.7 ppb。甲烷控制所带来的臭氧减少在全球范围内广泛存在,并会逐渐实现(约12年)。相比之下,对氮氧化物(NOx)和非甲烷挥发性有机化合物(NMVOCs)的控制针对污染地区的高臭氧事件,能迅速影响臭氧,但对气候的益处较小。对农业、林业和人类健康(忽略臭氧导致的死亡率)而言,臭氧减少所带来的全球货币化效益的粗略估计表明,减少约17%的全球人为甲烷排放是合理的。如果实施这些控制措施,将使臭氧浓度降低 -1 ppb,辐射强迫降低约0.12 W m(-2)。我们还发现,出于气候动机的甲烷减排所带来的与空气质量相关的附带效益与二氧化碳减排相当。空气质量规划应考虑在减少氮氧化物和非甲烷挥发性有机化合物排放的同时减少甲烷排放,并且由于甲烷控制的效益是国际共享的,工业化国家应考虑在气候变化或臭氧政策的进一步制定中强调甲烷减排。