Blows Stephanie, Ivers Rebecca Q, Connor Jennie, Ameratunga Shanthi, Woodward Mark, Norton Robyn
The George Institute for International Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2005 Sep;6(3):230-4. doi: 10.1080/15389580590969175.
Previous studies have indicated that unlicensed drivers are more likely to engage in risky driving behaviors, and are more likely than licensed drivers to be at fault and more seriously injured when involved in a crash. However, the prevalence of unlicensed drivers in the general driving population has not been measured, and the risk of an unlicensed driver being involved in an injury crash has not been quantified. We examined the association between unlicensed driving and car crash injury using data from a population-based case control study.
The study population was the drivers of all cars on public roads in the Auckland region. Cases were 571 vehicles involved in a crash resulting in any occupant being hospitalised or killed, from the study base, during the recruitment period. Controls were 588 vehicles selected from the driving population using a random cluster sampling method. The drivers of all vehicles completed a structured interview covering multiple potentially crash-related factors.
Driving unlicensed was reported by 12% of case and 1% of control drivers. Unlicensed drivers were at significantly higher risk of car crash injury than those holding a valid licence (odds ratio 11.1, 95% confidence interval 4.2 to 29.7) after adjustment for age and sex. After further adjustment for education level, ethnicity, driving exposure, time of day, sleepiness score, year of vehicle manufacture, passenger carriage, seatbelt use, blood alcohol concentration, and travelling speed at time of crash, the increased risk was still present but no longer significant (OR 3.9, 95% CI 0.7-22.4).
Unlicensed drivers are a high risk group for car crash injury after taking other crash-related risk factors into account. Strategies to reduce unlicensed driving may therefore facilitate reductions in road crashes, although further work is needed in this area.
以往研究表明，无证驾驶者更有可能从事危险驾驶行为，并且在发生碰撞时，比起有证驾驶者，他们更有可能是事故的过错方，且受伤更为严重。然而，普通驾驶人群中无证驾驶者的比例尚未得到测定，无证驾驶者发生致伤碰撞事故的风险也未被量化。我们使用基于人群的病例对照研究数据，研究了无证驾驶与车祸受伤之间的关联。
研究人群为奥克兰地区公共道路上所有汽车的驾驶者。病例为在招募期间，来自研究基地的571辆发生碰撞且导致任何乘客住院或死亡的车辆。对照组是使用随机整群抽样方法从驾驶人群中选取的588辆车。所有车辆的驾驶者都完成了一项涵盖多个可能与碰撞相关因素的结构化访谈。
12%的病例组驾驶者和1%的对照组驾驶者报告为无证驾驶。在对年龄和性别进行调整后，无证驾驶者发生车祸受伤的风险显著高于持有有效驾照的驾驶者（优势比11.1，95%置信区间4.2至29.7）。在进一步对教育水平、种族、驾驶暴露时间、一天中的时间、嗜睡评分、车辆制造年份、载客情况、安全带使用情况、血液酒精浓度以及碰撞时的行驶速度进行调整后，风险增加仍然存在，但不再显著（优势比3.9，95%置信区间0.7 - 22.4）。
在考虑了其他与碰撞相关的风险因素后，无证驾驶者是车祸受伤的高危人群。因此，减少无证驾驶的策略可能有助于减少道路交通事故，尽管在这一领域还需要进一步的研究。
