Nogueira P J, Falcão J M, Contreiras M T, Paixão E, Brandão João, Batista I
Observatório Nacional de Saúde, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal.
Euro Surveill. 2005 Jul;10(7):150-3.
During the first two weeks of August 2003, Portugal was affected by a severe heat wave. Following the identification in Portugal of the influence of heat waves on mortality in 1981 and 1991 (estimated excess of about 1900 and 1000 deaths respectively), the Observatorio Nacional de Saude (ONSA) - Instituto Nacional de Saude Dr. Ricardo Jorge, together with the Vigilancia Previsao e Informacao - Instituto de Meteorologia, created a surveillance system called iCARO, which has been in operation since 1999. iCARO identifies heat waves with potential influence on mortality [1]. Before the end of the 2003 heat wave, ONSA had produced a preliminary estimate of its effect on mortality. The results based on daily number of deaths from 1 June to 12 August 2003 were presented within 4 working days. Data was gathered from 31 National Civil registrars, covering the district capitals of all 18 districts of mainland Portugal, and representing approximately 40% of the mainland's mortality. The number of deaths registered in the period 30 July to 12 August was compared with the ones registered during 3 comparison periods: (in July): 1-14 July, 1-28 July, and 15-28 July). 15-28 July, the period best resembling the heat wave in time and characteristics, produced an estimation of 37.7% higher mortality rate then the value expected under normal temperature conditions. From this value, an estimate of 1316 death excess was obtained for mainland Portugal. The main purpose of this article is to present the method used to identify and assess the occurrence of an effect (excess mortality) during the heat wave of summer 2003.
2003年8月的前两周，葡萄牙遭受了严重的热浪袭击。继1981年和1991年在葡萄牙确认热浪对死亡率的影响（估计分别额外导致约1900人和1000人死亡）之后，国家卫生观测站（ONSA）——里卡多·豪尔赫博士国家卫生研究所，与气象研究所的预警与信息监测部门共同创建了一个名为iCARO的监测系统，该系统自1999年起开始运行。iCARO可识别出可能对死亡率产生影响的热浪[1]。在2003年热浪结束之前，ONSA已对其对死亡率的影响做出了初步估计。基于2003年6月1日至8月12日的每日死亡人数得出的结果在4个工作日内公布。数据收集自31个国家民事登记处，涵盖葡萄牙大陆所有18个区的首府，约占大陆死亡率的40%。将7月30日至8月12日期间登记的死亡人数与3个对比期登记的死亡人数进行比较：（7月）7月1日至14日、7月1日至28日以及7月15日至28日。7月15日至28日这个在时间和特征上与热浪最为相似的时期，其死亡率估计比正常温度条件下预期的值高出37.7%。据此得出葡萄牙大陆额外死亡人数估计为1316人。本文的主要目的是介绍用于识别和评估2003年夏季热浪期间影响（超额死亡率）发生情况的方法。
