Shanghai Climate Center, Shanghai Meteorological Services, Shanghai, 200030, China.
Key Laboratory of Cities' Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change in Shanghai, Shanghai, 200092, China.
Environ Geochem Health. 2020 Oct;42(10):3171-3184. doi: 10.1007/s10653-020-00556-9. Epub 2020 Apr 29.
Numerous studies in epidemiology, meteorology, and climate change research have demonstrated a significant association between abnormal ambient temperature and mortality. However, there is a shortage of research attention to a systematic assessment of potential mitigation measures which could effectively reduce the heat-related morbidity and mortality risks. This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40-60 (15.8-19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50-70 (17.7-21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adaptation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate.
许多流行病学、气象学和气候变化研究已经表明，异常环境温度与死亡率之间存在显著关联。然而，对于系统评估潜在缓解措施的研究关注不足，这些措施可以有效降低与热相关的发病率和死亡率风险。本研究首先说明了气候服务城市框架（UFCS）的系统分析版本的概念化。然后，构建了 UFCS 的系统动力学（SD）模型，并利用该模型量化了热浪对上海公共卫生系统的影响，并评估了 2013 年 7 月该市真实热浪事件背景下的两种缓解措施的性能。模拟结果表明，与没有缓解措施的基线相比，如果医院系统能够在提前收到警报的情况下准备 20%的床位用于应对热浪的紧急情况，那么在第 7 天和第 8 天的 2 天内，每日死亡人数将减少 40-60 人（15.8-19.5%）；如果在 2013 年将 790 元/月的最低生活津贴提高 20%，那么在第 8 天和第 12 天的 2 天内，每日死亡人数将减少 50-70 人（17.7-21.9%）。该工具可以帮助决策者根据绩效评估系统地评估适应和缓解措施的选择，从而增强城市应对气候变化的弹性。
