Gallego Eduardo
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, E.T.S. Ing. Industriales, Nuclear Engineering Department, José Gutiérrez Abascal, 2, E-28006 Madrid, Spain.
J Environ Radioact. 2006;85(2-3):247-64. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvrad.2004.10.017. Epub 2005 Aug 10.
A model is presented for the migration of 137Cs in the urban environment, including the drainage systems and the sewage treatment plants, with flexibility to be adapted to different configurations common in urban areas. The dynamics of 137Cs is simulated both under natural evolution and in case of forced decontamination, which can have a direct impact on the radioactivity going to sewers. The model assesses the activity concentrated in sewage sludge and that discharged with the treated or untreated effluent to the receiving watercourse. Tests made for two post-Chernobyl contamination scenarios in Sweden show differences between model predictions and observed results within the range of the experimental uncertainties. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the main model parameters indicates that some parameters may have a significant influence on the results of the model. Moreover, the model uncertainty is driven by a few parameters; therefore, additional research could be necessary into these parameters, aiming at simplifying the model without losing its predictive power.
本文提出了一个用于模拟137Cs在城市环境（包括排水系统和污水处理厂）中迁移的模型，该模型具有灵活性，可适应城市地区常见的不同布局。模拟了137Cs在自然演化以及强制去污情况下的动态变化，这可能会对进入下水道的放射性产生直接影响。该模型评估了浓缩在污水污泥中的活度以及随经处理或未经处理的废水排放到受纳水道中的活度。在瑞典针对切尔诺贝利事故后的两种污染情景进行的测试表明，模型预测结果与观测结果之间的差异在实验不确定性范围内。对主要模型参数进行的不确定性和敏感性分析表明，某些参数可能会对模型结果产生重大影响。此外，模型的不确定性由少数几个参数驱动；因此，可能有必要针对这些参数开展进一步研究，目标是在不丧失其预测能力的情况下简化模型。
