André Jean-Baptiste, Day Troy
Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L3N6.
Proc Biol Sci. 2005 Sep 22;272(1575):1949-56. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2005.3170.
We present a general analytical result for the probability that a newly introduced pathogen will evolve adaptations that allow it to maintain itself within any novel host population, as a function of disease life-history parameters. We demonstrate that this probability of "evolutionary emergence" depends on two key properties of the disease life history: (i) the basic reproduction number and (ii) the expected duration of an infection. These parameters encapsulate all of the relevant information and can be combined in a very simple expression, with estimates for the rates of adaptive mutation, to predict the probability of emergence for any novel pathogen. In general, diseases that initially have a large reproductive number and/or that cause relatively long infections are the most prone to evolutionary adaptation.
我们给出了一个通用的分析结果，即新引入的病原体进化出使其能够在任何新宿主群体中维持自身的适应性的概率，该概率是疾病生命史参数的函数。我们证明，这种“进化出现”的概率取决于疾病生命史的两个关键特性：（i）基本繁殖数和（ii）感染的预期持续时间。这些参数概括了所有相关信息，并且可以与适应性突变率的估计值一起组合成一个非常简单的表达式，以预测任何新型病原体出现的概率。一般来说，最初具有较大繁殖数和/或导致相对较长感染时间的疾病最容易发生进化适应。
