Fohr Susan Anderson, Layde Peter M, Guse Clare E
Injury Research Center, Medical College of Wisconsin, USA.
WMJ. 2005 Sep;104(7):31-6.
The purpose of this study was to measure the effectiveness of Wisconsin's graduated driver licensing law and determine whether a reduction in crash rates was due to reduced exposure, safer driving, or both.
General population crash rates for 16 and 17 year olds were computed for years before and after graduated drivers licensing. The induced exposure method was used to measure exposure and compute the odds ratio of at-fault crash involvement.
For 16 year olds, general crash rates declined 13.8% while injury crash rates declined 15.6%. For 17 year olds, crash rates declined 6.2% for all crashes and 5.8% for injury crashes. There was no statistically significant change in the odds ratio of at-fault crash involvement for 16- or 17-year-old drivers, relative to the reference group. After graduated drivers licensing, 16-year-old drivers were more likely to have at least 1 adult present and less likely to carry 2 or more teen passengers. There was no statistically significant effect on driving habits by time for 16 year olds.
Graduated driver licensing in Wisconsin has resulted in a drop in the general population crash rates for 16 and 17 year olds. This decrease is the result of reduced exposure to the risk of collision rather than safer driving by teens.
本研究旨在衡量威斯康星州分级驾驶员执照法的有效性,并确定撞车率的降低是由于暴露风险降低、驾驶更安全,还是两者兼而有之。
计算分级驾驶员执照实施前后16岁和17岁普通人群的撞车率。采用诱导暴露法来衡量暴露情况并计算过失撞车事故的优势比。
对于16岁的青少年,总体撞车率下降了13.8%,而受伤撞车率下降了15.6%。对于17岁的青少年,所有撞车事故的撞车率下降了6.2%,受伤撞车事故的撞车率下降了5.8%。与参照组相比,16岁或17岁驾驶员过失撞车事故的优势比没有统计学上的显著变化。分级驾驶员执照实施后,16岁的驾驶员更有可能至少有一名成年人在场,而搭载两名或更多青少年乘客的可能性更小。对于16岁的青少年,随着时间推移,驾驶习惯没有统计学上的显著变化。
威斯康星州的分级驾驶员执照制度导致16岁和17岁普通人群的撞车率下降。这种下降是青少年接触碰撞风险降低的结果,而非青少年驾驶更安全的结果。