Zhu Motao, Cummings Peter, Zhao Songzhu, Coben Jeffrey H, Smith Gordon S
Department of Epidemiology, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA Injury Control Research Center, West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA.
School of Public Health and Harborview injury Prevention & Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Inj Prev. 2015 Apr;21(e1):e23-7. doi: 10.1136/injuryprev-2013-040999. Epub 2014 Feb 13.
Graduated driver licensing (GDL) laws are associated with reduced crash rates per person-year among adolescents. It is unknown whether adolescents crash less per miles driven or drive less under GDL policies.
We used data from the US National Household Travel Survey and Fatality Analysis Reporting System for 1995-1996, 2001-2002 and 2008-2009. We compared adolescents subject to GDL laws with those not by estimating adjusted IRRs for being a driver in a crash with a death per person-year (aIRRpy) and per miles driven (aIRRm), and adjusted miles driven ratios (aMR) controlling for changes in rates over time.
Comparing persons subject to GDL policies with those not, 16 year olds had fewer fatal crashes per person-year (aIRRpy 0.63, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.91), drove fewer miles (aMR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.98) and had lower crash rates per miles driven (aIRRm 0.83, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.06). For age 17, the aIRRpy was 0.83 (95% CI 0.60 to 1.17), the aMR 0.80 (95% CI 0.63 to 1.03) and the aIRRm 1.03 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.35). For age 18, the aIRRpy was 0.93 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.19), the aMR 0.92 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.09) and the aIRRm 1.01 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.23).
If these associations are causal, GDL laws reduced crashes per person-year by about one-third among 16 year olds; half the reduction was due to fewer crashes per miles driven and half to less driving. For ages 17 and 18, there was no evidence of reduced crash rates per miles driven.
分级驾驶员执照（GDL）法律与青少年每人每年撞车率降低有关。尚不清楚在GDL政策下，青少年每英里驾驶的撞车事故是否减少，或者驾驶里程是否减少。
我们使用了1995 - 1996年、2001 - 2002年和2008 - 2009年美国国家家庭旅行调查和死亡分析报告系统的数据。我们通过估计每人生年（aIRRpy）和每英里驾驶（aIRRm）发生有死亡的撞车事故的调整后发病率比（IRR），以及控制随时间变化率的调整后驾驶里程比（aMR），将受GDL法律约束的青少年与未受该法律约束的青少年进行比较。
将受GDL政策约束的人与未受约束的人进行比较，16岁的青少年每人生年的致命撞车事故较少（aIRRpy为0.63，95%置信区间为0.47至0.91），驾驶里程较少（aMR为0.79，95%置信区间为0.63至0.98），每英里驾驶的撞车率较低（aIRRm为0.83，95%置信区间为0.65至1.06）。对于17岁的青少年，aIRRpy为0.83（95%置信区间为0.60至1.17），aMR为0.80（95%置信区间为0.63至1.03），aIRRm为1.03（95%置信区间为0.80至1.35）。对于18岁的青少年，aIRRpy为0.93（95%置信区间为0.72至1.19），aMR为0.92（95%置信区间为0.77至1.09），aIRRm为1.01（95%置信区间为0.84至1.23）。
如果这些关联是因果关系，GDL法律使16岁青少年每人生年的撞车事故减少了约三分之一；减少的一半归因于每英里驾驶的撞车事故减少，另一半归因于驾驶里程减少。对于17岁和18岁的青少年，没有证据表明每英里驾驶的撞车率有所降低。
