Timilsina Govinda R, Shrestha Ram M
Canadian Energy Research Institute, Calgary, AB, Canada.
J Environ Manage. 2006 Sep;80(4):327-41. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.10.013. Epub 2006 Mar 23.
The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is considered a key instrument to encourage developing countries' participation in the mitigation of global climate change. Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the energy supply and demand side activities are the main options to be implemented under the CDM. This paper analyses the general equilibrium effects of a supply side GHG mitigation option-the substitution of thermal power with hydropower--in Thailand under the CDM. A static multi-sector general equilibrium model has been developed for the purpose of this study. The key finding of the study is that the substitution of electricity generation from thermal power plants with that from hydropower plants would increase economic welfare in Thailand. The supply side option would, however, adversely affect the gross domestic product (GDP) and the trade balance. The percentage changes in economic welfare, GDP and trade balance increase with the level of substitution and the price of certified emission reduction (CER) units.
《联合国气候变化框架公约京都议定书》下的清洁发展机制(CDM)被视为鼓励发展中国家参与缓解全球气候变化的关键工具。通过能源供需侧活动减少温室气体(GHG)排放是清洁发展机制下将实施的主要选择。本文分析了清洁发展机制下泰国在供应侧温室气体减排选项——用水电替代火电——的一般均衡效应。为该研究目的开发了一个静态多部门一般均衡模型。该研究的主要发现是,用火力发电厂发电替代水力发电厂发电将增加泰国的经济福利。然而,供应侧选项将对国内生产总值(GDP)和贸易平衡产生不利影响。经济福利、GDP和贸易平衡的百分比变化随着替代水平和核证减排量(CER)单位价格的提高而增加。