Secular trends in the prevalence of diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance in urban South India--the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES-17).

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to determine the secular trends in prevalence of diabetes and IGT in urban India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES) screened 26,001 individuals aged > or =20 years using the American Diabetes Association fasting capillary glucose criteria. The study population, which was representative of Chennai, was recruited by systematic random sampling. Every tenth subject from Phase 1 of CURES was invited to participate in Phase 3 for screening by World Health Organization (WHO) plasma glucose criteria. The response rate was 90.4% (2,350 responders from 2,600 potential subjects). The prevalences of diabetes and IGT in CURES were compared with three earlier studies: two conducted on a representative population of Chennai in 1989 and 1995, and the other the National Urban Diabetes Survey (NUDS) completed in 2000.

RESULTS

The overall crude prevalence of diabetes using WHO criteria in CURES was 15.5% (age-standardised 14.3%), while that of IGT was 10.6% (age-standardised 10.2%). Prevalence of diabetes increased by 39.8% (8.3-11.6%) from 1989 to 1995; by 16.3% (11.6-13.5%) between 1995 and 2000; and by 6.0% (13.5-14.3%) between 2000 and 2004. Thus within a span of 14 years, the prevalence of diabetes increased by 72.3% (chi (2) trend 22.23, p < 0.0001). The prevalence of IGT increased by 9.6% from 1989 to 1995 and by 84.6% between 1995 and 2000 (chi 2 trend 52.9, p < 0.0001). However, it decreased by 39.3% between 2000 and 2004 (p < 0.0001). There was a shift in the age at diagnosis of diabetes to a younger age in CURES compared with NUDS.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Compared with earlier studies, the prevalence of diabetes in Chennai, representing urban India, has increased while that of IGT has decreased.