Epley Nicholas, Gilovich Thomas
University of Chicago, IL 60637, USA.
Psychol Sci. 2006 Apr;17(4):311-8. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.2006.01704.x.
One way to make judgments under uncertainty is to anchor on information that comes to mind and adjust until a plausible estimate is reached. This anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic is assumed to underlie many intuitive judgments, and insufficient adjustment is commonly invoked to explain judgmental biases. However, despite extensive research on anchoring effects, evidence for adjustment-based anchoring biases has only recently been provided, and the causes of insufficient adjustment remain unclear. This research was designed to identify the origins of insufficient adjustment. The results of two sets of experiments indicate that adjustments from self-generated anchor values tend to be insufficient because they terminate once a plausible value is reached (Studies 1a and 1b) unless one is able and willing to search for a more accurate estimate (Studies 2a-2c).
在不确定性下做出判断的一种方法是依据脑海中浮现的信息进行锚定，然后进行调整，直到得出一个合理的估计值。这种锚定与调整启发式被认为是许多直觉判断的基础，并且人们通常用调整不足来解释判断偏差。然而，尽管对锚定效应进行了广泛研究，但基于调整的锚定偏差的证据直到最近才被提出，而且调整不足的原因仍不明确。本研究旨在确定调整不足的根源。两组实验的结果表明，从自行生成的锚定值进行调整往往是不足的，因为一旦得出一个合理的值，调整就会终止（研究1a和1b），除非一个人有能力且愿意去寻找更准确的估计值（研究2a - 2c）。
