Epley Nicholas, Gilovich Thomas
Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Pers Soc Psychol Bull. 2004 Apr;30(4):447-60. doi: 10.1177/0146167203261889.
Many judgmental biases are thought to be the product of insufficient adjustment from an initial anchor value. Nearly all existing evidence of insufficient adjustment, however, comes from an experimental paradigm that evidence indicates does not involve adjustment at all. In this article, the authors first provide further evidence that some kinds of anchors (those that are self-generated and known to be incorrect but close to the correct answer) activate processes of adjustment, whereas others (uncertain anchors provided by an external source) do not. It is then shown that adjustment from self-generated anchors does indeed tend to be insufficient, both by comparing the estimates of participants starting from different anchor values and by comparing estimates with actual answers. Thus, evidence is provided of adjustment-based anchoring effects similar to the accessibility-based anchoring effects observed in the traditional anchoring paradigm, supporting theories of social judgment that rely on mechanisms of insufficient adjustment.
许多判断偏差被认为是从初始锚定值进行不充分调整的产物。然而，几乎所有现有的关于不充分调整的证据都来自一种实验范式，而有证据表明该范式根本不涉及调整。在本文中，作者首先提供了进一步的证据，即某些类型的锚（那些自行生成且已知不正确但接近正确答案的锚）会激活调整过程，而其他类型（由外部来源提供的不确定锚）则不会。然后通过比较从不同锚定值开始的参与者的估计值，并将估计值与实际答案进行比较，表明从自行生成的锚进行的调整确实往往是不充分的。因此，提供了与传统锚定范式中观察到的基于可及性的锚定效应类似的基于调整的锚定效应的证据，支持了依赖于不充分调整机制的社会判断理论。
