Epley N, Gilovich T
Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Psychol Sci. 2001 Sep;12(5):391-6. doi: 10.1111/1467-9280.00372.
People's estimates of uncertain quantities are commonly influenced by irrelevant values. These anchoring effects were originally explained as insufficient adjustment away from an initial anchor value. The existing literature provides little support for the postulated process of adjustment, however, and a consensus that none takes place seems to be emerging. We argue that this conclusion is premature, and we present evidence that insufficient adjustment produces anchoring effects when the anchors are self-generated. In Study 1, participants' verbal reports made reference to adjustment only, from self-generated anchors. In Studies 2 and 3, participants induced to accept values by nodding their heads gave answers that were closer to an anchor (i.e., they adjusted less) than participants induced to deny values by shaking their heads--again, only when the anchor was self-generated. These results suggest it is time to reintroduce anchoring and adjustment as an explanation for some judgments under uncertainty.
人们对不确定数量的估计通常会受到无关数值的影响。这些锚定效应最初被解释为偏离初始锚定值的调整不足。然而，现有文献几乎没有为假定的调整过程提供支持，而且一种认为不存在调整的共识似乎正在形成。我们认为这一结论为时过早，并且我们提供证据表明，当锚定值是自行生成时，调整不足会产生锚定效应。在研究1中，参与者的口头报告仅提及了从自行生成的锚定值进行的调整。在研究2和3中，被诱导通过点头接受数值的参与者给出的答案比被诱导通过摇头拒绝数值的参与者更接近锚定值（即他们调整得更少）——同样，这仅在锚定值是自行生成时才出现。这些结果表明，是时候重新引入锚定和调整来解释不确定性下的某些判断了。
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