Upshur R E G, Moineddin R, Crighton E J, Mamdani M
Primary Care Research Unit, Sunnybrook and Women's College Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Dec;134(6):1174-8. doi: 10.1017/S0950268806006236. Epub 2006 Apr 20.
Co-circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza has made the partitioning of morbidity and mortality from each virus difficult. Given the interaction between chronic obstructive lung disease (COPD) and pneumonia, often one can be mistaken for the other. Multivariate time-series methodology was applied to examine the impact of RSV and influenza on hospital admissions for bronchiolitis, pneumonia, and COPD. The Granger Causality Test, used to determine the causal relationship among series, showed that COPD and pneumonia are not influenced by RSV (P=0.2999 and 0.7725), but RSV does influence bronchiolitis (P=0.0001). Influenza was found to influence COPD, pneumonia, and bronchiolitis (P<0.0001). The use of multivariate time series and Granger causality applied to epidemiological data clearly illustrates the significant contribution of influenza and RSV to morbidity in the population.
呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）和流感病毒的共同流行使得区分每种病毒导致的发病和死亡情况变得困难。鉴于慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）和肺炎之间的相互作用，二者常常容易混淆。采用多变量时间序列方法来研究RSV和流感对细支气管炎、肺炎及COPD住院率的影响。用于确定序列间因果关系的格兰杰因果检验表明，COPD和肺炎不受RSV影响（P = 0.2999和0.7725），但RSV会影响细支气管炎（P = 0.0001）。研究发现流感会影响COPD、肺炎和细支气管炎（P < 0.0001）。将多变量时间序列和格兰杰因果关系应用于流行病学数据，清楚地表明了流感和RSV对人群发病的重大影响。
