Cardis Elisabeth, Krewski Daniel, Boniol Mathieu, Drozdovitch Vladimir, Darby Sarah C, Gilbert Ethel S, Akiba Suminori, Benichou Jacques, Ferlay Jacques, Gandini Sara, Hill Catherine, Howe Geoffrey, Kesminiene Ausrele, Moser Mirjana, Sanchez Marie, Storm Hans, Voisin Laurent, Boyle Peter
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Int J Cancer. 2006 Sep 15;119(6):1224-35. doi: 10.1002/ijc.22037.
The Chernobyl accident, which occurred April 26, 1986, resulted in a large release of radionuclides, which were deposited over a very wide area, particularly in Europe. Although an increased risk of thyroid cancer in exposed children has been clearly demonstrated in the most contaminated regions, the impact of the accident on the risk of other cancers as well as elsewhere in Europe is less clear. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the human cancer burden in Europe as a whole from radioactive fallout from the accident. Average country- and region-specific whole-body and thyroid doses from Chernobyl were estimated using new dosimetric models and radiological data. Numbers of cancer cases and deaths possibly attributable to radiation from Chernobyl were estimated, applying state-of-the-art risk models derived from studies of other irradiated populations. Simultaneously, trends in cancer incidence and mortality were examined over time and by dose level. The risk projections suggest that by now Chernobyl may have caused about 1,000 cases of thyroid cancer and 4,000 cases of other cancers in Europe, representing about 0.01% of all incident cancers since the accident. Models predict that by 2065 about 16,000 (95% UI 3,400-72,000) cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 (95% UI 11,000-59,000) cases of other cancers may be expected due to radiation from the accident, whereas several hundred million cancer cases are expected from other causes. Although these estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty, they provide an indication of the order of magnitude of the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident. It is unlikely that the cancer burden from the largest radiological accident to date could be detected by monitoring national cancer statistics. Indeed, results of analyses of time trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Europe do not, at present, indicate any increase in cancer rates -- other than of thyroid cancer in the most contaminated regions -- that can be clearly attributed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident.
1986年4月26日发生的切尔诺贝利事故导致大量放射性核素释放，这些放射性核素沉降在非常广阔的区域，尤其是在欧洲。虽然在污染最严重的地区，已明确证实受辐射儿童患甲状腺癌的风险增加，但该事故对其他癌症风险的影响以及在欧洲其他地区的影响尚不清楚。本研究的目的是评估切尔诺贝利事故放射性沉降物对整个欧洲人类癌症负担的影响。利用新的剂量测定模型和放射学数据，估算了切尔诺贝利事故对各国及各地区的平均全身和甲状腺剂量。应用从其他受辐照人群研究中得出的最新风险模型，估算了可能归因于切尔诺贝利辐射的癌症病例数和死亡数。同时，还研究了癌症发病率和死亡率随时间以及剂量水平的变化趋势。风险预测表明，截至目前，切尔诺贝利事故可能已在欧洲导致约1000例甲状腺癌和4000例其他癌症，约占事故发生以来所有新发癌症的0.01%。模型预测，到2065年，由于该事故的辐射，预计将出现约16000例（95%可信区间3400 - 72000例）甲状腺癌和25000例（95%可信区间11000 - 59000例）其他癌症，而预计由其他原因导致的癌症病例数将达数亿例。尽管这些估计存在相当大的不确定性，但它们表明了切尔诺贝利事故可能影响的量级。通过监测国家癌症统计数据不太可能发现这场迄今为止最大的放射事故造成的癌症负担。事实上，目前欧洲癌症发病率和死亡率随时间变化趋势的分析结果并未表明，除污染最严重地区的甲状腺癌外，有任何可明确归因于切尔诺贝利事故辐射的癌症发病率增加。
