Yuan Jingsong, Yun Hongmin, Lan Wei, Wang Wei, Sullivan Sheena G, Jia Shaowei, Bittles Alan H
Peking University Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China.
Am J Infect Control. 2006 May;34(4):234-6. doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2005.12.006.
The first cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) were identified in November 2002, in Guangdong Province, China. The epidemic spread rapidly within China and internationally, with 8454 recorded infections and 792 deaths by June 15, 2003. Temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity were the three key meteorological determinants affecting the transmission of SARS. The peak spread of SARS occurred at a mean temperature of 16.9 degrees C (95% CI, 10.7 degrees C to 23.1 degrees C), with a mean relative humidity of 52.2% (95% CI, 33.0% to 71.4%) and wind speed of 2.8 ms(-1) (95% CI, 2.0 to 3.6 ms(-1)). In northern China, these conditions are most likely to occur in the spring and suggest that SARS has a seasonal nature akin to viruses such as influenza and the common cold. A regression equation (Y=218.692-0.698X(t)-2.043X(h)+2.282X(w)) was derived to represent the optimal climatic conditions for the 2003 SARS epidemic. Further investigations in other regions are necessary to verify these results.
2002年11月,中国广东省发现了首例严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)病例。该疫情在中国国内和国际上迅速蔓延,截至2003年6月15日,记录的感染病例达8454例,死亡792例。温度、相对湿度和风速是影响SARS传播的三个关键气象因素。SARS传播高峰出现在平均温度为16.9摄氏度(95%置信区间为10.7摄氏度至23.1摄氏度)、平均相对湿度为52.2%(95%置信区间为33.0%至71.4%)且风速为2.8米/秒(95%置信区间为2.0至3.6米/秒)的情况下。在中国北方,这些条件最有可能出现在春季,这表明SARS具有类似于流感和普通感冒等病毒的季节性特征。推导了一个回归方程(Y = 218.692 - 0.698X(t) - 2.043X(h) + 2.282X(w))来表示2003年SARS疫情的最佳气候条件。有必要在其他地区进行进一步调查以验证这些结果。