Division of Ecology & Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
Conservation Research, Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate, Canberra, ACT 2602, Australia.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Mar 8;119(10):e2105416119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2105416119. Epub 2022 Mar 1.
SignificanceClimate change is impacting wild populations, but its relative importance compared to other causes of change is still unclear. Many studies assume that changes in traits primarily reflect effects of climate change, but this assumption is rarely tested. We show that in European birds global warming was likely the single most important contributor to temporal trends in laying date, body condition, and offspring number. However, nontemperature factors were also important and acted in the same direction, implying that attributing temporal trends solely to rising temperatures overestimates the impact of climate warming. Differences among species in the amount of trait change were predominantly determined by these nontemperature effects, suggesting that species differences are not due to variation in sensitivity to temperature.
意义气候变化正在影响野生种群，但与其他变化原因相比，其相对重要性仍不清楚。许多研究假设性状的变化主要反映了气候变化的影响，但这种假设很少得到检验。我们表明，在欧洲鸟类中，全球变暖可能是产卵日期、身体状况和后代数量随时间变化的唯一最重要的因素。然而，非温度因素也很重要，并且作用方向相同，这意味着仅仅将时间趋势归因于气温上升会高估气候变暖的影响。性状变化量在物种间的差异主要取决于这些非温度效应，这表明物种间的差异不是由于对温度的敏感性变化所致。
