Ding Qu Jian, Hesketh Therese
Institute of Population Studies, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310012, PR China.
BMJ. 2006 Aug 19;333(7564):371-3. doi: 10.1136/bmj.38775.672662.80. Epub 2006 May 11.
To examine the impact of the one child family policy in China on fertility, preferred family size, and sex ratio.
Secondary analysis of data from the Chinese cross sectional national family planning and reproductive health survey, 2001. Interviews of representative sample of women aged 15-49.
Data were obtained from 39,585 women, with a total of 73,202 pregnancies and 56,830 live births. The average fertility rate in women over 35 (n = 17,078) was 1.94 (2.1 in rural areas and 1.4 in urban areas) and for women under 35 (n = 11,543) 1.73 (1.25 and 1.79). Smaller families were associated with younger age, higher level of education, and living in an urban area. The male to female ratio was 1.15 and rose from 1.11 in 1980-9 to 1.23 for 1996-2001. Most women wanted small families: 35% preferred one child and 57% preferred two.
Since the one child family policy began, the total birth rate and preferred family size have decreased, and a gross imbalance in the sex ratio has emerged.
研究中国独生子女政策对生育率、理想家庭规模和性别比的影响。
对2001年中国全国计划生育与生殖健康横断面调查数据进行二次分析。对15 - 49岁女性的代表性样本进行访谈。
获取了39585名女性的数据，共有73202次怀孕和56830例活产。35岁以上女性（n = 17078）的平均生育率为1.94（农村地区为2.1，城市地区为1.4），35岁以下女性（n = 11543）的平均生育率为1.73（农村地区为1.25，城市地区为1.79）。较小的家庭规模与年龄较小、教育程度较高以及居住在城市地区有关。男女比例为1.15，从1980 - 1989年的1.11上升至1996 - 2001年的1.23。大多数女性希望家庭规模较小：35%的女性希望生育一个孩子，57%的女性希望生育两个孩子。
自独生子女政策实施以来，总出生率和理想家庭规模下降，性别比出现严重失衡。
