Zohrabian Armineh, Hayes Edward B, Petersen Lyle R
Division of Adult and Community Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Mar;12(3):375-80. doi: 10.3201/eid1203.050782.
West Nile virus (WNV) was first detected in the Western Hemisphere in 1999 in New York City. From 1999 through 2004, >16,600 cases of WNV-related illnesses were reported in the United States, of which >7,000 were neuroinvasive disease and >600 were fatal. Several approaches are under way to develop a human vaccine. Through simulations and sensitivity analysis that incorporated uncertainties regarding future transmission patterns of WNV and costs of health outcomes, we estimated that the range of values for the cost per case of WNV illness prevented by vaccination was US 20,000 dollars-59,000 dollars(mean 36,000 dollars). Cost-effectiveness was most sensitive to changes in the risk for infection, probability of symptomatic illness, and vaccination cost. Analysis indicated that universal vaccination against WNV disease would be unlikely to result in societal monetary savings unless disease incidence increases substantially over what has been seen in the past 6 years.
西尼罗河病毒（WNV）于1999年在纽约市首次在西半球被发现。从1999年到2004年，美国报告了超过16600例与WNV相关的疾病，其中超过7000例为神经侵袭性疾病，超过600例死亡。目前正在采取多种方法来研发一种人类疫苗。通过纳入关于WNV未来传播模式和健康结果成本的不确定性的模拟和敏感性分析，我们估计，通过接种疫苗预防每例WNV疾病的成本价值范围为20000美元至59000美元（平均36000美元）。成本效益对感染风险、出现症状性疾病的概率和疫苗接种成本的变化最为敏感。分析表明，除非疾病发病率比过去6年大幅增加，否则针对WNV疾病的普遍接种疫苗不太可能为社会节省资金。
