Meuleners Lynn B, Harding Anna, Lee Andy H, Legge Matthew
School of Public Health, Curtin University of Technology, GPO Box U 1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2006 Sep;38(5):1006-10. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2006.04.005. Epub 2006 May 22.
This study assessed age-related and gender differences in the relative contribution of fragility and crash over-representation to serious injuries per crash-involved driver in Western Australia. Police-reported crashes for the period 1998-2003 were extracted from the Western Australian Road Injury Database. For each passenger vehicle driver age and gender group, serious injuries per crash-involved driver and driver involvements in crashes per 100 million vehicle-kilometre travelled (VKT) were calculated as the respective measure of fragility and crash over-representation. Results from the decomposition method of analysis showed that older drivers over the age of 70 sustained serious injury rates more than twice as high as those of the 30-59-year-old drivers. Fragility increased with age, contributing between 47% and 95% for drivers above 65 years, but crash over-representation was the dominant factor for male drivers above 80 years. In contrast, fragility contributed little to the excess injury risk of younger drivers under the age of 30. The importance of fragility as a contributing factor to the inflated serious injury risk per vehicle-kilometre travelled for older drivers suggested that road safety initiatives should be directed towards the protection of vehicle occupants as well as screening for their driving ability.
本研究评估了在西澳大利亚州，每起涉及碰撞事故的驾驶员中，脆弱性和碰撞过度代表性对严重伤害的相对贡献的年龄和性别差异。从西澳大利亚州道路伤害数据库中提取了1998 - 2003年警方报告的碰撞事故。对于每个乘用车驾驶员年龄和性别组，计算每起涉及碰撞事故的驾驶员的严重伤害数以及每行驶1亿车公里（VKT）的驾驶员碰撞事故参与率，分别作为脆弱性和碰撞过度代表性的度量。分解分析方法的结果表明，70岁以上的老年驾驶员遭受严重伤害的比率是30 - 59岁驾驶员的两倍多。脆弱性随年龄增长而增加，65岁以上驾驶员的脆弱性贡献在47%至95%之间，但碰撞过度代表性是80岁以上男性驾驶员的主导因素。相比之下，脆弱性对30岁以下年轻驾驶员额外的伤害风险贡献不大。脆弱性作为老年驾驶员每车公里行驶中严重伤害风险增加的一个促成因素，其重要性表明道路安全举措应旨在保护车内乘客以及对他们的驾驶能力进行筛查。
