Schröder Winfried, Schmidt Gunther, Hasenclever Judith
Institut für Umweltwissenschaften, Hochschule Vechta, PF 1553, D-49364, Vechta, Germany.
Environ Monit Assess. 2006 Sep;120(1-3):27-43. doi: 10.1007/s10661-005-9047-y. Epub 2006 Jun 15.
The rise of the air temperature is assured to be part of the global climatic change, but there is still a lack of knowledge about its effects at a regional scale. The article tackles the correlation of air temperature with the phenology of selected plants by the example of Baden-Württemberg to provide a spatial valid data base for regional climate change models. To this end, the data on air temperature and plant phenology, gathered from measurement sites without congruent coverage, were correlated after performing geostatistical analysis and estimation. In addition, geostatistics are used to analyze and cartographically depict the spatial structure of the phenology of plants in spring and in summer. The statistical analysis reveals a significant relationship between the rising air temperature and the earlier beginning of phenological phases like blooming or fruit maturation: From 1991 to 1999 spring time, as indicated by plant phenology, has begun up to 15 days earlier than from 1961 to 1990. As shown by geostatistics, this holds true for the whole territory of Baden-Württemberg. The effects of the rise of air temperature should be investigated not only by monitoring biological individuals, as for example plants, but on an ecosystem level as well. In Germany, the environmental monitoring should be supplemented by the study of the effects of the climatic change in ecosystems. Because air temperature and humidity have a great influence on the temporal and spatial distribution of pathogen carriers (vectors) and pathogens, mapping of the environmental determinants of vector and pathogen distribution in space and time should be performed in order to identify hot spots for risk assessment and further detailed epidemiological studies.
气温上升肯定是全球气候变化的一部分，但在区域尺度上，人们对其影响仍缺乏了解。本文以巴登-符腾堡州为例，探讨了气温与特定植物物候的相关性，以便为区域气候变化模型提供空间有效的数据库。为此，在进行地质统计学分析和估算后，对从覆盖范围不一致的测量站点收集的气温和植物物候数据进行了相关性分析。此外，地质统计学还用于分析和绘制春夏季植物物候的空间结构。统计分析表明，气温上升与开花或果实成熟等物候阶段提前开始之间存在显著关系：从植物物候来看，1991年至1999年春季比1961年至1990年提前了多达15天开始。地质统计学表明，这在巴登-符腾堡州全境都是如此。气温上升的影响不仅应通过监测生物个体（如植物）来研究，还应在生态系统层面进行研究。在德国，环境监测应辅以对气候变化在生态系统中的影响的研究。由于气温和湿度对病原体携带者（媒介）和病原体的时空分布有很大影响，因此应绘制媒介和病原体在空间和时间上分布的环境决定因素图，以便识别风险评估的热点地区和进行更详细的流行病学研究。
