Ahas Rein, Aasa Anto
Institute of Geography, University of Tartu, 46 Vanemuise St., Tartu, 51014, Estonia.
Int J Biometeorol. 2006 Sep;51(1):17-26. doi: 10.1007/s00484-006-0041-z.
This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5-20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10-30 days in the spring period. Estonia's average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.
本文总结了1948年至1999年期间在爱沙尼亚收集的943个植物、鱼类和鸟类物候时间序列的趋势。在研究的物候阶段中，超过80%在春季提前，而夏季和秋季的变化较小。在春季，植物和鸟类阶段的显著提前时间为5至20天，鱼类阶段提前了10至30天。爱沙尼亚春季的平均气温显著升高，而与此同时，秋季气温略有下降。爱沙尼亚西部海洋性气候区的生长季节显著延长。所调查的物候和气候趋势主要与冬季月份北大西洋涛动指数（NAOI）的变化有关。尽管冬季NAOI对各阶段的影响在夏季逐渐减弱，但所调查阶段的趋势仍然很高。春末和夏初物候阶段的趋势可能是由冬季变化的温度惯性、辐射平衡的变化或土地利用、热岛效应或空气污染等人类影响的直接后果造成的。
