Shah Haresh C
Stanford University, CA 94305-4020, USA.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2006 Aug 15;364(1845):2183-9. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2006.1821.
Over the past few decades, we have seen many joint programmes between developed countries and developing countries to help the latter in managing their earthquake risks. These programmes span the whole spectrum of disciplines from seismology and geology to engineering, social science and economics. Many of these programmes have been effective in raising awareness, in urging governments to work towards risk reduction and in spawning an 'industry' of disaster management in many of the developing countries. However, even as these efforts proceed, we have seen death and destruction due to earthquake after earthquake in developing countries, strongly suggesting that the problems for which those assistance programmes were developed are not so effective. Therefore, it is natural to ask why this is happening. Are the assistance programmes reaching the right people? Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right type of things in these countries, but we have not allowed enough time for our actions to take effect. Maybe we are reaching the right people and doing the right actions for most of the miles we need to cover in helping communities mitigate their earthquake risks. However, the issue could be whether we are reaching people who represent the 'last mile' on this pathway. Here, I explore whether the work that many organizations and countries have done towards earthquake risk reduction over the past few decades in developing countries is appropriate or not. Why do we keep seeing the catastrophes of Sumatra, Chi Chi, Bhuj, Turkey, Algeria and on and on? I will articulate what I think is the problem. My contribution is intended to generate discussions, self-analysis of our approaches, what we are doing right and what we are not doing right. Hopefully such discussions will result in a better connection between the last mile and programmes around the world which are working towards earthquake risk mitigation.
在过去几十年里，我们看到发达国家与发展中国家开展了许多联合项目，以帮助后者管理地震风险。这些项目涵盖了从地震学、地质学到工程学、社会科学和经济学的所有学科领域。其中许多项目在提高认识、敦促各国政府努力降低风险以及在许多发展中国家催生灾害管理“行业”方面取得了成效。然而，即便这些努力仍在继续，我们却目睹了发展中国家地震导致的一次次人员伤亡和破坏，这有力地表明那些援助项目所针对的问题并未取得显著成效。因此，自然而然会问这是为什么。援助项目是否惠及了正确的人群？或许我们在这些国家找对了人，也做了正确的事，但我们没有给行动留出足够的起效时间。或许在帮助社区减轻地震风险的大部分工作中，我们找对了人，也采取了正确的行动。然而，问题可能在于我们接触到的是否是这条道路上代表“最后一英里”的人群。在此，我探讨过去几十年来许多组织和国家在发展中国家为降低地震风险所做的工作是否恰当。为什么我们不断看到苏门答腊、集集、布吉、土耳其、阿尔及利亚等地的灾难接连不断？我将阐明我认为的问题所在。我的贡献旨在引发讨论，促使我们对自身方法进行自我剖析，弄清楚我们做得对的地方以及做得不对的地方。希望这样的讨论能让“最后一英里”与世界各地致力于减轻地震风险的项目建立更好的联系。
