Dilley Maxx
Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, United Nations Development Programme, Châtelaine, Geneva, Switzerland.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2006 Aug 15;364(1845):2217-29. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2006.1823.
Natural disasters are caused by the exposure and vulnerabilities to natural hazards of people, infrastructure and economic activities. Analysis of these factors has permitted identification of countries and areas within them where disaster-related mortality and economic losses are likely in the future. These high-risk areas are candidates for increased attention to, and investment in, disaster risk identification, reduction and transfer. Plans are underway to further identify disaster risk levels and factors on national and subnational scales in high-risk countries to create evidence for improved risk management decision-making. In this paper, I review selected recent global and regional risk analyses to highlight findings, areas for improvement and next steps in the overall process of using disaster risk information for more effective risk management and cost-effective reduction of losses.
自然灾害是由人员、基础设施和经济活动对自然灾害的暴露程度和脆弱性所引起的。对这些因素的分析有助于确定未来可能发生与灾害相关的人员死亡和经济损失的国家及其中的地区。这些高风险地区应得到更多关注，并加大对灾害风险识别、降低和转移的投资。目前正在制定计划，以便在高风险国家进一步在国家和次国家层面确定灾害风险水平和因素，为改进风险管理决策提供依据。在本文中，我回顾了近期一些全球和区域风险分析，以突出研究结果、有待改进的领域以及在利用灾害风险信息进行更有效的风险管理和以具有成本效益的方式减少损失的整个过程中的后续步骤。
