Huppert Herbert E, Sparks R Stephen J
Institute of Theoretical Geophysics, Centre of Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2006 Aug 15;364(1845):1875-88. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2006.1803.
Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10,000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur.
人类正变得越来越容易受到自然灾害的影响，这在很大程度上是人口增长和全球化的结果。未来，我们很可能每年都会经历几次造成1万多人死亡的灾难。造成100万人伤亡的灾难只是时间问题。这种情况主要是脆弱性增加的结果。气候变化也可能正在影响极端天气事件的频率，以及海平面上升导致沿海地区的脆弱性。除非找到更好的方法，通过改进预测和预警以及提高社区的准备和恢复能力来减轻影响，否则灾难性后果只会增加。极端事件存在特殊困难，这些事件可能影响多个国家，而最大的事件可能产生全球影响。超级火山爆发和小行星撞击的危害可能导致全球灾难，威胁文明并造成数十亿人死亡。虽然这些是非常罕见的事件，但它们将会发生，需要加以考虑。在错误的时间、错误的地点发生的更频繁、规模更小的事件可能会对人类、环境和经济产生非常大的影响。需要持续努力来识别有风险的地区，并在事件发生前采取措施应用科学。
