Merkle Edgar C, Van Zandt Trisha
Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, OH, USA.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2006 Aug;135(3):391-408. doi: 10.1037/0096-3445.135.3.391.
In tasks as diverse as stock market predictions and jury deliberations, a person's feelings of confidence in the appropriateness of different choices often impact that person's final choice. The current study examines the mathematical modeling of confidence calibration in a simple dual-choice task. Experiments are motivated by an accumulator model, which proposes that information supporting each alternative accrues on separate counters. The observer responds in favor of whichever alternative's counter first hits a designated threshold. Confidence can then be scaled from the difference between the counters at the time that the observer makes a response. The authors examine the overconfidence result in general and present new findings dealing with the effect of response bias on confidence calibration.
在诸如股票市场预测和陪审团审议等各种不同的任务中，一个人对不同选择适当性的信心感受往往会影响其最终选择。当前的研究考察了简单二选一任务中信心校准的数学建模。实验是由一个累加器模型推动的，该模型提出支持每个选项的信息在单独的计数器上累加。观察者会选择首先达到指定阈值的那个选项的计数器所对应的选项。然后可以根据观察者做出反应时两个计数器之间的差异来衡量信心。作者总体上考察了过度自信的结果，并给出了关于反应偏差对信心校准影响的新发现。
