Kao R R, Danon L, Green D M, Kiss I Z
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Aug 22;273(1597):1999-2007. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3505.
Using a novel interpretation of dynamic networks, we analyse the network of livestock movements in Great Britain in order to determine the risk of a large epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This network is exceptionally well characterized, as there are legal requirements that the date, source, destination and number of animals be recorded and held on central databases. We identify a percolation threshold in the structure of the livestock network, indicating that, while there is little possibility of a national epidemic of FMD in winter when the catastrophic 2001 epidemic began, there remains a risk in late summer or early autumn. These predictions are corroborated by a non-parametric simulation in which the movements of livestock in 2003 and 2004 are replayed as they occurred. Despite the risk, we show that the network displays small-world properties which can be exploited to target surveillance and control and drastically reduce this risk.
通过对动态网络的一种新颖解读，我们分析了英国牲畜移动网络，以确定口蹄疫大规模疫情的风险。该网络具有异常良好的特征描述，因为有法律要求记录动物的日期、来源、目的地和数量，并保存在中央数据库中。我们在牲畜网络结构中确定了一个渗流阈值，这表明，虽然在2001年灾难性疫情开始的冬季，口蹄疫全国性疫情的可能性很小，但在夏末或初秋仍存在风险。这些预测通过非参数模拟得到了证实，在该模拟中，2003年和2004年牲畜的移动情况按实际发生情况进行了重现。尽管存在风险，但我们表明该网络具有小世界特性，可以利用这一特性来进行针对性的监测和控制，并大幅降低这种风险。
