Kiss Istvan Z, Green Darren M, Kao Rowland R
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Proc Biol Sci. 2005 Jul 7;272(1570):1407-14. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2005.3092.
The efficacy of contact tracing, be it between individuals (e.g. sexually transmitted diseases or severe acute respiratory syndrome) or between groups of individuals (e.g. foot-and-mouth disease; FMD), is difficult to evaluate without precise knowledge of the underlying contact structure; i.e. who is connected to whom? Motivated by the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK, we determine, using stochastic simulations and deterministic 'moment closure' models of disease transmission on networks of premises (nodes), network and disease properties that are important for contact tracing efficiency. For random networks with a high average number of connections per node, little clustering of connections and short latency periods, contact tracing is typically ineffective. In this case, isolation of infected nodes is the dominant factor in determining disease epidemic size and duration. If the latency period is longer and the average number of connections per node small, or if the network is spatially clustered, then the contact tracing performs better and an overall reduction in the proportion of nodes that are removed during an epidemic is observed.
无论是个体之间（如性传播疾病或严重急性呼吸综合征）还是个体群体之间（如口蹄疫），接触者追踪的效果如果没有对潜在接触结构的精确了解就很难评估；也就是说，谁与谁有联系？受2001年英国口蹄疫疫情的启发，我们使用随机模拟和基于场所（节点）网络上疾病传播的确定性“矩闭合”模型，确定了对接触者追踪效率很重要的网络和疾病属性。对于每个节点平均连接数高、连接很少聚集且潜伏期短的随机网络，接触者追踪通常无效。在这种情况下，隔离受感染节点是决定疾病流行规模和持续时间的主要因素。如果潜伏期较长且每个节点的平均连接数较少，或者网络在空间上聚集，那么接触者追踪的效果会更好，并且在疫情期间被移除的节点比例会整体下降。
