Ludwig Gilbert X, Alatalo Rauno V, Helle Pekka, Lindén Harto, Lindström Jan, Siitari Heli
Department of Biological & Environmental Science, University of Jyväskylä, PO Box 35, 40014 Jyväskylä, Finland.
Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Aug 22;273(1597):2009-16. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3538.
Temporal asymmetry in patterns of regional climate change may jeopardize the match between the proximate and ultimate cues of the timing of breeding. The consequences on short- and long-term population dynamics and trends as well as the underlying mechanisms are, however, often unknown. Using long-term data from Finland, we demonstrate that black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) have responded to spring warming by advancing both egg-laying and hatching. However, early summer (the time of hatching) has not advanced, and chicks have to face colder post-hatching conditions. Demonstrating that these conditions are critical to post-hatching survival, we show that chicks are increasingly suffering higher mortality because they hatch too early. Consequently, breeding success and population size has severely declined over the past four decades. Finally, we modelled the impact of this particular climate change scenario on population dynamics and show that the mismatch can further explain the observed collapse of cyclic fluctuations. Because the evolutionary response of grouse is lagging behind the novel selective pressures, seasonally asymmetric climate change is likely to constitute an important determinant of future short- and long-term changes in the dynamics of black grouse populations.
区域气候变化模式中的时间不对称可能会危及繁殖时间的近端和最终线索之间的匹配。然而，其对短期和长期种群动态及趋势的影响以及潜在机制往往并不清楚。利用来自芬兰的长期数据，我们证明黑琴鸡（Tetrao tetrix）通过提前产蛋和孵化来应对春季变暖。然而，初夏（孵化时间）并未提前，雏鸡不得不面临孵化后更寒冷的环境。我们表明这些环境对孵化后存活至关重要，雏鸡因孵化过早而越来越多地遭受更高的死亡率。因此，在过去四十年里繁殖成功率和种群规模大幅下降。最后，我们模拟了这种特定气候变化情景对种群动态的影响，并表明这种不匹配可以进一步解释观察到的周期性波动的崩溃。由于松鸡的进化反应落后于新的选择压力，季节性不对称气候变化很可能成为未来黑琴鸡种群动态短期和长期变化的一个重要决定因素。
