Herrenkohl Todd I, Hill Karl G, Hawkins J David, Chung Ick-Joong, Nagin Daniel S
Social Development Research Group, School of Social Work, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98115, USA.
J Adolesc Health. 2006 Aug;39(2):206-13. doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2005.11.028.
To address two questions: (1) Can groups of family management trajectories be identified in early adolescence? (2) How are the different family management trajectories related to trajectories of violent offending for youths aged 13-18 years?
Analyses used semi-parametric group-based modeling (SGM) to identify groups of family management trajectories. A joint trajectory method was used to predict patterns of youth violence conditional on family management.
Analyses identified 3 trajectories of family management from age 11 to 14: (1) stable low, (2) stable high, and (3) increasing family management. Youths from families in the low family management trajectory were more likely than others to follow chronic and late increasing trajectories of violence. In contrast, youths in stable-high positive family management were less likely to engage in violence from age 13 to age 18. Further, youths whose families started low, but increased to high family management, had patterns of adolescent violence similar to those whose parents were consistently high in their use of good parenting practices.
The current study advances knowledge of developmental patterns in family management and youth violence. Although most parents remained stable in family management practices from age 11 to 14 (stable high or stable low), parents who started low, but improved their management practices during middle school, had children with lower levels of chronic and late increasing violence than those who remained low. Findings suggest that interventions developed to enhance family management practices may reduce risk for violence in later adolescence.
解决两个问题：（1）能否在青春期早期识别出家庭管理轨迹的类别？（2）不同的家庭管理轨迹与13至18岁青少年的暴力犯罪轨迹有何关联？
分析采用半参数基于群体的建模（SGM）来识别家庭管理轨迹的类别。使用联合轨迹方法，根据家庭管理情况预测青少年暴力模式。
分析确定了从11岁到14岁的3种家庭管理轨迹：（1）稳定低水平，（2）稳定高水平，（3）家庭管理逐渐增加。来自低家庭管理轨迹家庭的青少年比其他青少年更有可能遵循暴力行为的慢性和后期增加轨迹。相比之下，处于稳定高积极家庭管理模式的青少年在13岁至18岁期间实施暴力的可能性较小。此外，家庭管理从低水平开始但后来提高到高水平的青少年，其青少年暴力模式与父母一直高度采用良好育儿方式的青少年相似。
本研究推进了对家庭管理和青少年暴力发展模式的认识。尽管大多数父母在11岁至14岁期间的家庭管理做法保持稳定（稳定高或稳定低），但那些开始时家庭管理水平低但在中学期间改善了管理做法的父母，其孩子的慢性和后期暴力增加水平低于那些一直保持低水平的父母。研究结果表明，为加强家庭管理做法而制定的干预措施可能会降低青少年后期暴力行为的风险。
