Factors associated with the clinical diagnosis of foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the UK.

The purpose of this investigation was to identify factors associated with the clinical diagnosis of foot and mouth disease during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. Using logistic regression, we compared: (1) reports of suspect disease that resulted in the declaration of FMD to reports that did not, and (2) laboratory-positive cases to laboratory-negative cases. From 6,801 reports of suspect disease, 2,026 cases of FMD were identified. Suspect cases were more likely to become clinical cases if: (1) the report originated from the disease control authorities ('active surveillance') rather than the public, usually farmers ('passive surveillance'); (2) cattle were the species suspected of disease, as opposed to sheep; (3) the report was filed during the peak of the epidemic; (4) the reporting premises was within 3 km of an FMD case detected within the previous 2 weeks; or (5) the report originated from certain local disease control centres. There were significant two-way interactions between: type of surveillance and species suspected of disease, type of surveillance and proximity of other infected premises, species suspected and time in the epidemic, and time in the epidemic and proximity of other infected premises. Clinical cases were more likely to be laboratory positive if: (1) they were found by passive versus active surveillance, (2) cattle were suspected of disease (versus sheep), (3) oldest lesions were less than 3 days, (4) the report was filed at any time other than the peak of the epidemic, or (5) the report originated from certain local disease control centres. Significant two-way interactions were found between: type of surveillance and species suspected of disease, and type of surveillance and time in the epidemic.