Boklund Anette, Mortensen Sten, Johansen Maren H, Halasa Tariq
Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark.
The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration, Head Office, Glostrup, Denmark.
Front Vet Sci. 2017 May 11;4:64. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2017.00064. eCollection 2017.
Preparedness planning for a veterinary crisis is important to be fast and effective in the eradication of disease. For countries with a large export of animals and animal products, each extra day in an epidemic will cost millions of Euros due to the closure of export markets. This is important for the Danish husbandry industry, especially the swine industry, which had an export of €4.4 billion in 2012. The purposes of this project were to (1) develop an iterative tool with the aim of estimating the resources needed during an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Denmark, (2) identify areas, which can delay the control of the disease. The tool developed should easily be updated, when knowledge is gained from other veterinary crises or during an outbreak of FMD. The stochastic simulation model DTU-DADS was used to simulate spread of FMD in Denmark. For each task occurring during an epidemic of FMD, the time and personnel needed per herd was estimated by a working group with expertise in contingency and crisis management. By combining this information, an iterative model was created to calculate the needed personnel on a daily basis during the epidemic. The needed personnel was predicted to peak within the first week with a requirement of approximately 123 (65-175) veterinarians, 33 (23-64) technicians, and 36 (26-49) administrative staff on day 2, while the personnel needed in the Danish Emergency Management Agency (responsible for the hygiene barrier and initial cleaning and disinfection of the farm) was predicted to be 174 (58-464), mostly recruits. The time needed for surveillance visits was predicted to be the most influential factor in the calculations. Based on results from a stochastic simulation model, it was possible to create an iterative model to estimate the requirements for personnel during an FMD outbreak in Denmark. The model can easily be adjusted, when new information on resources appears from management of other crisis or from new model runs.
制定兽医危机应急计划对于快速有效地根除疾病至关重要。对于大量出口动物及动物产品的国家而言，疫情每多持续一天，由于出口市场关闭，将损失数百万欧元。这对丹麦畜牧业，尤其是养猪业意义重大，丹麦养猪业在2012年的出口额达44亿欧元。本项目的目的是：（1）开发一种迭代工具，用于估算丹麦口蹄疫疫情爆发期间所需资源；（2）确定可能延误疾病控制的环节。所开发的工具应便于在从其他兽医危机或口蹄疫疫情中获取知识时进行更新。使用随机模拟模型DTU-DADS来模拟丹麦口蹄疫的传播情况。对于口蹄疫疫情期间发生的每项任务，由具备应急和危机管理专业知识的工作组估算每群所需的时间和人员。通过整合这些信息，创建了一个迭代模型，以计算疫情期间每日所需的人员数量。预计所需人员数量在第一周达到峰值，第2天大约需要123名（65 - 175名）兽医、33名（23 - 64名）技术人员和36名（26 - 49名）行政人员，而丹麦应急管理局（负责农场的卫生隔离以及初步清洁和消毒）预计需要174名（58 - 464名）人员，大多为新招募人员。预计监测访问所需时间是计算中最具影响力的因素。基于随机模拟模型结果，有可能创建一个迭代模型来估算丹麦口蹄疫疫情期间的人员需求。当从其他危机管理或新的模型运行中出现有关资源的新信息时，该模型可以轻松调整。
