Laming Donald
Department of Experimental Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2006 Sep;32(5):1146-63. doi: 10.1037/0278-7393.32.5.1146.
This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a probability distribution over all possible such sequences. The predictions are parameter free. This article looks at (a) the accuracy of those predictions and how that accuracy can be validated, (b) the principles on which the predictive algorithm is based, and (c) the limits to predictability. Some implications for the understanding of free recall are spelled out.
本文报告了对B. 默多克和J. 梅特卡夫（1978年）的自由回忆数据的一些计算，这些数据是在呈现一系列单词时进行出声复述的情况下得到的。根据发声序列，并将刺激物插入到合适的位置，就有可能预测随后的回忆序列——预测采用对所有可能的此类序列的概率分布形式。这些预测是无参数的。本文探讨了：（a）这些预测的准确性以及如何验证该准确性；（b）预测算法所基于的原理；以及（c）可预测性的限度。文中还阐述了对理解自由回忆的一些启示。
