Li Xingli, Tan Hongzhuan, Li Shuoqi, Zhou Jia, Liu Aizhong, Yang Tubao, Wen Shi Wu, Sun Zhenqiu
School of Public Health, Central South University, 88 Xiangya Road, Changsha, Hunan 410078, PR China.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2007 Mar;101(3):299-304. doi: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2006.05.011. Epub 2006 Sep 1.
The potential life loss caused by floods has not been studied before. We carried out a retrospective cohort study in flood areas in Hunan, China in 1999. The standard mortality rate (SMR) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) were used to quantify the burden of flood on health. The SMRs of injury/poisoning and malignant neoplasm were higher in the river flood (151.36 x 10(-5), 127.30 x 10(-5)) and drainage problems (143.74 x 10(-5), 105.87 x 10(-5)) groups than those in the no-flood group (113.40 x 10(-5), 74.81 x 10(-5)). The standard rates of YPLL (SYPLL per thousand) in the river flood (89.56 per thousand) and drainage problems (71.30 per thousand) groups were significantly higher than those in the no-flood group (65.74 per thousand, P<0.05). The SYPLL was significantly higher in males than in females. The percentages of attributable risk (PARs) of SMRs and PARs of SYPLLs resulting from flood were 12.26 and 26.60% in the river flood group and 10.56 and 7.80% in the drainage problems group. We conclude that floods increase the affected residents' SYPLL, and that the river flood had stronger effects than the drainage problems floods.
此前尚未对洪水造成的潜在生命损失进行过研究。1999年我们在中国湖南的洪水灾区开展了一项回顾性队列研究。采用标准死亡率（SMR）和潜在寿命损失年数（YPLL）来量化洪水对健康造成的负担。河流洪水组（151.36×10⁻⁵，127.30×10⁻⁵）和排水问题组（143.74×10⁻⁵，105.87×10⁻⁵）的伤害/中毒和恶性肿瘤的SMR高于无洪水组（113.40×10⁻⁵，74.81×10⁻⁵）。河流洪水组（每千人为89.56）和排水问题组（每千人为71.30）的YPLL标准率显著高于无洪水组（每千人为65.74，P<0.05）。男性的SYPLL显著高于女性。河流洪水组中洪水导致的SMR归因危险百分比（PAR）和SYPLL的PAR分别为12.26%和26.60%，排水问题组分别为10.56%和7.80%。我们得出结论，洪水增加了受影响居民的SYPLL，且河流洪水的影响比排水问题洪水更强。
