Angel Roger
University of Arizona, Steward Observatory, 933 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Nov 14;103(46):17184-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0608163103. Epub 2006 Nov 3.
If it were to become apparent that dangerous changes in global climate were inevitable, despite greenhouse gas controls, active methods to cool the Earth on an emergency basis might be desirable. The concept considered here is to block 1.8% of the solar flux with a space sunshade orbited near the inner Lagrange point (L1), in-line between the Earth and sun. Following the work of J. Early [Early, JT (1989) J Br Interplanet Soc 42:567-569], transparent material would be used to deflect the sunlight, rather than to absorb it, to minimize the shift in balance out from L1 caused by radiation pressure. Three advances aimed at practical implementation are presented. First is an optical design for a very thin refractive screen with low reflectivity, leading to a total sunshade mass of approximately 20 million tons. Second is a concept aimed at reducing transportation cost to 50 dollars/kg by using electromagnetic acceleration to escape Earth's gravity, followed by ion propulsion. Third is an implementation of the sunshade as a cloud of many spacecraft, autonomously stabilized by modulating solar radiation pressure. These meter-sized "flyers" would be assembled completely before launch, avoiding any need for construction or unfolding in space. They would weigh a gram each, be launched in stacks of 800,000, and remain for a projected lifetime of 50 years within a 100,000-km-long cloud. The concept builds on existing technologies. It seems feasible that it could be developed and deployed in approximately 25 years at a cost of a few trillion dollars, <0.5% of world gross domestic product (GDP) over that time.
如果事实证明,即便实施了温室气体控制措施,全球气候的危险变化仍不可避免,那么或许就需要采取积极措施在紧急情况下给地球降温。本文所探讨的概念是,在地球与太阳连线上靠近内拉格朗日点(L1)的轨道上放置一个太空遮阳伞,阻挡1.8%的太阳辐射通量。继J. 厄尔利(J. Early)的研究[厄尔利,JT(1989年)《英国行星际学会杂志》42:567 - 569]之后,将使用透明材料来使阳光偏转,而非吸收阳光,以尽量减少辐射压力导致的从L1点向外的平衡偏移。文中介绍了旨在实际应用的三项进展。首先是一种光学设计,用于制作反射率低的极薄折射屏,遮阳伞总质量约为2000万吨。其次是一个概念,即通过利用电磁加速摆脱地球引力,随后采用离子推进,将运输成本降至50美元/千克。第三是将遮阳伞实现为众多航天器组成的云团,通过调节太阳辐射压力实现自主稳定。这些米级的“飞行器”将在发射前完全组装好,无需在太空中进行任何建造或展开操作。每个飞行器重1克,以80万个为一组发射,预计在长达10万公里的云团中停留50年。该概念基于现有技术。在大约25年内以数万亿美元的成本开发并部署该技术似乎是可行的,这一成本在这段时间内不到世界国内生产总值(GDP)的0.5%。