Ioannidis John P A
Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, School of Medicine, University of Ioannina, Ioannina, Greece.
PLoS Clin Trials. 2006 Nov 17;1(7):e36. doi: 10.1371/journal.pctr.0010036.
The credibility and replication of research findings evolve over time, as data accumulate. However, translation of postulated research promises to real-life biomedical applications is uncommon. In some fields of research, we may observe diminishing effects for the strength of research findings and rapid alternations of exaggerated claims and extreme contradictions--the "Proteus Phenomenon." While these phenomena are probably more prominent in the basic sciences, similar manifestations have been documented even in clinical trials and they may undermine the credibility of clinical research. Significance-chasing bias may be in part responsible, but the greatest threat may come from the poor relevance and scientific rationale and thus low pre-study odds of success of research efforts. Given that we currently have too many research findings, often with low credibility, replication and rigorous evaluation become as important as or even more important than discovery. Credibility, replication, and translation are all desirable properties of research findings, but are only modestly correlated. In this essay, I discuss some of the evidence (or lack thereof) for the process of evolution and translation of research findings, with emphasis on the biomedical sciences.
随着数据的积累,研究结果的可信度和可重复性会随时间而演变。然而,将假设的研究成果转化为实际的生物医学应用并不常见。在某些研究领域,我们可能会观察到研究结果的影响力逐渐减弱,以及夸张的说法和极端矛盾的快速交替——即“变形杆菌现象”。虽然这些现象在基础科学中可能更为突出,但即使在临床试验中也有类似的表现,它们可能会损害临床研究的可信度。追求显著性的偏差可能是部分原因,但最大的威胁可能来自于相关性差和科学依据不足,从而导致研究工作在研究前成功的可能性较低。鉴于我们目前有太多可信度往往较低的研究结果,重复性和严格评估变得与发现同样重要甚至更为重要。可信度、可重复性和转化都是研究结果所期望具备的特性,但它们之间的相关性并不高。在本文中,我将讨论一些关于研究结果演变和转化过程的证据(或缺乏证据的情况),重点是生物医学科学领域。