Rosenfeld Richard, Baumer Eric, Messner Steven F
Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri-St. Louis, One University Boulevard, St. Louis, MO 63121, USA.
Ann Epidemiol. 2007 Feb;17(2):119-25. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2006.07.016. Epub 2006 Dec 18.
Past research suggests that Americans arm themselves when they do not trust one another. We reexamine the relationship between social trust and firearm prevalence with improved data and methods. We also control for conditions, including area homicide rates, that other research showed to be related to both social trust and firearm prevalence.
We use structural equation models to assess reciprocal effects of social trust, firearm prevalence, and homicide rates for a nationally representative sample of counties and county clusters (n = 99).
We found no direct relationship between social trust and firearm prevalence. Social trust is related to firearm prevalence indirectly through its influence on homicide rates. Areas with low levels of social trust have high homicide rates, which, in turn, increase firearm prevalence.
Americans arm themselves in response to high levels of firearm violence. Because greater social trust is related to lower homicide rates, public health researchers should be concerned with the community conditions that promote social trust.
过去的研究表明，美国人在彼此不信任时会武装自己。我们使用改进的数据和方法重新审视社会信任与枪支普及率之间的关系。我们还控制了包括地区凶杀率在内的一些条件，其他研究表明这些条件与社会信任和枪支普及率都有关。
我们使用结构方程模型来评估社会信任、枪支普及率和凶杀率之间的相互影响，样本为具有全国代表性的县和县域集群（n = 99）。
我们发现社会信任与枪支普及率之间没有直接关系。社会信任通过其对凶杀率的影响间接与枪支普及率相关。社会信任水平低的地区凶杀率高，而这反过来又会增加枪支普及率。
美国人因枪支暴力水平高而武装自己。由于更高的社会信任与更低的凶杀率相关，公共卫生研究人员应关注促进社会信任的社区条件。
