Barnett Adrian Gerard
School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Herston, Australia.
Epidemiology. 2007 May;18(3):369-72. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000257515.34445.a0.
Short-term changes in temperature have been associated with cardiovascular deaths. This study examines changes in this association over time among the US elderly.
Daily cardiovascular mortality counts from 107 cities in the US National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study were regressed against daily temperature using the case-crossover method. Estimates were averaged by time and season using a meta-analysis.
In summer 1987 the average increase in cardiovascular deaths due to a 10 degrees F increase in temperature was 4.7%. By summer 2000, the risk with higher temperature had disappeared (-0.4%). In contrast, an increase in temperature in fall, winter and spring was associated with a decrease in deaths, and this decrease remained constant over time.
Heat-related cardiovascular deaths in the elderly have declined over time, probably due to increased use of air conditioning, while increased risks with cold-related temperature persist.
气温的短期变化与心血管疾病死亡有关。本研究调查了美国老年人中这种关联随时间的变化。
采用病例交叉法，将美国国家发病率和死亡率空气污染研究中107个城市的每日心血管疾病死亡人数与每日气温进行回归分析。使用荟萃分析按时间和季节对估计值进行平均。
1987年夏季，气温每升高10华氏度，心血管疾病死亡人数平均增加4.7%。到2000年夏季，高温导致的风险消失了（-0.4%）。相比之下，秋季、冬季和春季气温升高与死亡人数减少有关，而且这种减少随时间保持不变。
随着时间的推移，老年人中与高温相关的心血管疾病死亡人数有所下降，这可能是由于空调使用增加所致，而与低温相关的风险依然存在。
