Shine Keith P, Berntsen Terje K, Fuglestvedt Jan S, Skeie Ragnhild Bieltvedt, Stuber Nicola
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2007 Jul 15;365(1856):1903-14. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2050.
Multi-gas climate agreements require a metric by which emissions of gases with different lifetimes and radiative properties can be placed on a common scale. The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the global warming potential (GWP) as such a metric. The GWP has attracted particular criticism as being inappropriate in the context of climate policy which seeks to restrict warming below a given target, because it gives equal weight to emissions irrespective of the target and the proximity to the target. The use of an alternative metric, the time-dependent global temperature change potential (GTP), is examined for its suitability and the prospects for it including very short-lived species. It retains the transparency and relative ease of use, which are attractive features of the GWP, but explicitly includes a dependence on the target of climate policy. The weighting of emissions using the GTP is found to be significantly dependent on the scenarios of future emissions and the sensitivity of the climate system. This may indicate that the use of any GTP-based weighting in future policymaking would necessitate regular revisions, as the global-mean temperature moves towards a specified target.
多气体气候协定需要一个指标，通过该指标可以将具有不同寿命和辐射特性的气体排放置于一个共同的尺度上。《联合国气候变化框架公约京都议定书》使用全球变暖潜能值（GWP）作为这样一个指标。全球变暖潜能值受到了特别的批评，因为在旨在将升温限制在给定目标以下的气候政策背景下，它并不合适，因为它对排放给予同等权重，而不考虑目标以及与目标的接近程度。本文研究了使用另一种指标——随时间变化的全球温度变化潜能值（GTP）的适用性及其纳入极短寿命物种的前景。它保留了全球变暖潜能值具有吸引力的透明度和相对易用性，但明确纳入了对气候政策目标的依赖性。研究发现，使用全球温度变化潜能值对排放进行加权在很大程度上取决于未来排放情景和气候系统的敏感性。这可能表明，在未来的政策制定中，使用任何基于全球温度变化潜能值的加权方法都需要定期修订，因为全球平均温度朝着特定目标发展。
