Payne Greg, Laporte Audrey, Deber Raisa, Coyte Peter C
University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Milbank Q. 2007 Jun;85(2):213-57. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2007.00485.x.
In most developed countries, as the largest population cohorts approach the age of sixty-five, the impact of population aging on health care expenditures has become a topic of growing interest. This articles examines trends in elderly disability and end-of-life morbidity, estimations of the cost of dying, and models of expenditures as a function of both age and time-to-death and finds broad improvement in mortality and morbidity among the elderly in the developed world. Reduced mortality and low growth in the costs associated with dying could reduce forecasted expenditures, but high growth in expenditures for those not close to death and for nonhospital services could create new economic pressures on health care systems.
在大多数发达国家，随着最大的人口群体接近65岁，人口老龄化对医疗保健支出的影响已成为一个越来越受关注的话题。本文研究了老年人残疾和临终发病率的趋势、死亡成本的估计以及作为年龄和死亡时间函数的支出模型，并发现发达国家老年人的死亡率和发病率有了广泛改善。死亡率降低以及与死亡相关的成本低增长可能会降低预测支出，但对于那些离死亡较远的人和非医院服务的支出高增长可能会给医疗保健系统带来新的经济压力。
