School of Information Technology and Network Security, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing 102628, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Mar 19;17(6):2051. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17062051.
The chemical terrorist attack is an unconventional form of terrorism with vast scope of influence, strong concealment, high technical means and severe consequences. Chemical terrorism risk refers to the uncertainty of the effects of terrorist organisations using toxic industrial chemicals/drugs and classic chemical weapons to attack the population. There are multiple risk factors infecting chemical terrorism risk, such as the threat degree of terrorist organisations, attraction of targets, city emergency response capabilities, and police defense capabilities. We have constructed a Bayesian network of chemical terrorist attacks to conduct risk analysis. The scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis are applied to validate the model and analyse the impact of the vital factor on the risk of chemical terrorist attacks. The results show that the model can be used for simulation and risk analysis of chemical terrorist attacks. In terms of controlling the risk of chemical terrorist attack, patrol and surveillance are less critical than security checks and police investigations. Security check is the most effective approach to decrease the probability of successful attacks. Different terrorist organisations have different degrees of threat, but the impacts of which are limited to the success of the attack. Weapon types and doses are sensitive to casualties, but it is the level of emergency response capabilities that dominates the changes in casualties. Due to the limited number of defensive resources, to get the best consequence, the priority of the deployment of defensive sources should be firstly given to governmental buildings, followed by commercial areas. These findings may provide the theoretical basis and method support for the combat of the public security department and the safety prevention decision of the risk management department.
化学恐怖袭击是一种影响范围广泛、隐蔽性强、技术手段高、后果严重的非常规恐怖袭击形式。化学恐怖袭击风险是指恐怖组织利用有毒工业化学品/毒品和经典化学武器袭击人口的影响的不确定性。化学恐怖袭击风险存在多种风险因素，如恐怖组织的威胁程度、目标吸引力、城市应急响应能力和警察防御能力。我们构建了一个化学恐怖袭击的贝叶斯网络来进行风险分析。通过情景分析和敏感性分析来验证模型，并分析关键因素对化学恐怖袭击风险的影响。结果表明，该模型可用于化学恐怖袭击的模拟和风险分析。在控制化学恐怖袭击风险方面，巡逻和监视不如安全检查和警察调查重要。安全检查是降低攻击成功概率的最有效方法。不同的恐怖组织具有不同程度的威胁，但影响仅限于攻击的成功。武器类型和剂量对伤亡人数敏感，但伤亡人数的变化主要取决于应急响应能力水平。由于防御资源有限，为了获得最佳后果，防御资源的部署优先级应首先给予政府建筑，其次是商业区。这些发现可能为公安部门的战斗和风险管理部门的安全预防决策提供理论依据和方法支持。
