Bernstein Daniel M, Atance Cristina, Meltzoff Andrew N, Loftus Geoffrey R
Kwantlen University College, Canada.
Child Dev. 2007 Jul-Aug;78(4):1374-94. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8624.2007.01071.x.
Although hindsight bias (the "I knew it all along" phenomenon) has been documented in adults, its development has not been investigated. This is despite the fact that hindsight bias errors closely resemble the errors children make on theory of mind (ToM) tasks. Two main goals of the present work were to (a) create a battery of hindsight tasks for preschoolers, and (b) assess the relation between children's performance on these and ToM tasks. In two experiments involving 144 preschoolers, 3-, 4-, and 5-year olds exhibited strong hindsight bias. Performance on hindsight and ToM tasks was significantly correlated independent of age, language ability, and inhibitory control. These findings contribute to a more comprehensive account of perspective taking across the lifespan.
尽管事后诸葛亮式偏差（即“我早就知道了”现象）在成年人中已有记载，但其发展过程尚未得到研究。尽管事实上事后诸葛亮式偏差错误与儿童在心理理论（ToM）任务中所犯的错误极为相似。本研究的两个主要目标是：（a）为学龄前儿童创建一套事后诸葛亮任务组，以及（b）评估儿童在这些任务与心理理论任务上的表现之间的关系。在涉及144名学龄前儿童的两项实验中，3岁、4岁和5岁的儿童均表现出强烈的事后诸葛亮式偏差。事后诸葛亮任务和心理理论任务的表现与年龄、语言能力和抑制控制无关，显著相关。这些发现有助于更全面地解释整个生命周期中的观点采择。
