Chen R B, Morgan S P
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 19104-6298.
Demography. 1991 Nov;28(4):513-33.
We use vital registration data published since 1979 to update trends in the timing of first births. Two important trends are documented. First, the likelihood that childless women over age 30 will have a first birth has increased since the 1970s. This change shows that women born in the 1950s are "catching up" on fertility postponed at younger ages. Second, racial differences in the timing of first births are very large. For those born in the 1950s, nonwhites have first births much earlier, and far fewer nonwhite than white women will remain permanently childless. In the second part of the paper, we use these data for recent years to assess earlier projections of childlessness based on cohort and period approaches. We also assess the accuracy of stated intentions to have no children.
我们利用自1979年以来公布的人口动态登记数据，来更新初育时间的趋势。记录了两个重要趋势。首先，自20世纪70年代以来，30岁以上无子女女性生育第一胎的可能性有所增加。这一变化表明，20世纪50年代出生的女性正在“追赶”年轻时推迟的生育。其次，初育时间的种族差异非常大。对于20世纪50年代出生的人来说，非白人的初育时间要早得多，而且非白人女性永久性无子女的人数远少于白人女性。在论文的第二部分，我们利用近年来的数据，评估基于队列和时期方法对无子女情况的早期预测。我们还评估了声称不生育意愿的准确性。
