Morgan S P
Demography. 1982 Aug;19(3):315-34.
A theoretical and analytic model of fertility intentions is proposed which treats "don't know" responses and other uncertain responses as distinct from more firm intentions. Methodologically, these analyses show that "don't know" responses need not be treated as missing data, but instead are both valid and meaningful responses. Furthermore, eliminating these uncertain respondents would have the negative effects of distorting across survey comparisons in intentions due to shifts in aggregate uncertainty, reducing the likelihood of accurately detecting shifts in fertility intentions, and lessening the representatives of the sample analyzed. Substantively, in conjunction with Morgan (1981), these results show that the sharp 1965-76 decline in the likelihood of intending more births at parities 2 through 5 occurred as women halted childbearing at minimal acceptable levels and postponed further childbearing. With time (or age), this delayed fertility became fertility about which the respondent was uncertain and, finally, fertility foregone. Since 1970, similar shifts are observed at parities 0 and 1, perhaps foreshadowing an increase in voluntary childlessness and one-child families.
本文提出了一个生育意愿的理论与分析模型，该模型将“不知道”的回答以及其他不确定的回答视为与更明确的意愿有所不同。从方法论角度来看，这些分析表明，“不知道”的回答无需被视为缺失数据，相反，它们是有效且有意义的回答。此外，剔除这些不确定的受访者会产生负面影响，由于总体不确定性的变化，会扭曲不同调查之间意愿的比较，降低准确检测生育意愿变化的可能性，并减少所分析样本的代表性。从实质内容来看，结合摩根（1981年）的研究，这些结果表明，1965年至1976年期间，生育二孩至五孩的意愿大幅下降，这是因为女性将生育停止在最低可接受水平，并推迟了进一步生育。随着时间（或年龄）的推移，这种延迟生育变成了受访者不确定的生育，最终变成了放弃生育。自1970年以来，在一孩及未育的情况中也观察到了类似的变化，这或许预示着自愿不育和独生子女家庭数量的增加。
